The Communications and Information network Association of Japan (CIAJ: a general incorporated association) announces the results of the second survey conducted in February on the “Impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake & Tsunami on FY2011 Orders/Shipment of ICT Equipment” following the first survey conducted last June.
The survey results from last June forecast a relatively large impact on orders/shipments in the first half of the fiscal year, but expected a recovery in demand in the latter half due to respective vendor efforts. However, the uptake was not expected to be enough to fill the gap from the first half (negative 10% or more impact on over 50% of equipment category orders/shipments destined to the domestic market).
The response from this survey in February 2012 (follow-up survey) indicates that the recovery from the disaster is moving quicker than expected in the June survey. In addition, the impact on the entire fiscal year shipment figures is forecast to be minimal.
I.Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Impact on ICT Equipment Orders/Shipments
- Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami impact on ICT equipment orders/shipments and timing of recovery
[Survey on recovery (1Q-4Q response)]
Results In the domestic market, most equipment recovered in 1Q-2Q. (see table below)
For export market, most equipment recovered in 1Q-2Q. (see table below)
[Survey on forecast of impact on entire fiscal year figures (response using ranks A~D)]
Results In the domestic market, difficult to distinguish from other factors, but almost no impact. (see table below)
For export market, difficult to distinguish other factors, but almost no impact. (see table below)
- Negative/Positive Factors
The most significant negative factor impacting ICT equipment orders/shipment figures was parts & material procurement problems (39%), followed by damage to production facilities (24%), then followed by consumer mindset and decreased willingness to invest (13%). Positive factors included increased investment in recovery and rebuilding efforts, replacement demand (to advanced function models, such as One Seg broadcasting, and due to loss/repairs), BCP-related demand for equipment and services.
- Respective vendor efforts to tackle negative factors
- Early recovery of earthquake/tsunami-damaged factories
- Strengthen parts procurement system (redirect procurement routes, switch to multi-vendors, etc.)
- Change to alternative parts (including change in production location) or in-house design
- Creation of framework for regular exchange of risk information among manufacturing and sales divisions.
- Forecast of the timing of recovery and impact on fiscal year
[Timing of recovery from earthquake and tsunami] (Choose from among 1Q-4Q)
Equipment type Domestic market Export Response Response Key telephone systems 1Q 1Q, 2Q, 4Q Intercoms 2Q – Facsimile equipment 2Q 2Q Cellular phones 2Q 2Q Central office switching equipment 2Q 1Q, 2Q PBXs 2Q 1Q, 2Q Digital transmission equipment 2Q 1Q, 2Q Optical access equipment (ONU, MC) 1Q 1Q, 2Q Fixed telecommunications equipment (terrestrial) 1Q 1Q, 2Q Fixed communications equipment (satellite) 1Q – Base station equipment 2Q 1Q, 2Q Routers, LAN switches 2Q 1Q, 2Q Comprehensive total of 12 types 2Q 1Q, 2Q
[Earthquake and tsunami impact on total FY2011 figures] (from ranks A-D)
A: Positive recovery demand, B: Almost no impact (less than 10%),
C: Significant negative impact (10% or more), D: Impact from a different factor
Equipment type Domestic market Export Response Response Key telephone systems B B Intercoms B – Facsimile equipment B B Cellular phones B B Central office switching equipment B B PBXs B B Digital transmission equipment B B Optical access equipment (ONU, MC) B B Fixed telecommunications equipment (terrestrial) B B Fixed communications equipment (satellite) B – Base station equipment B B Routers, LAN switches B B Comprehensive total of 12 types B B
- Request to the government or other authorities
The following requests were raised concerning future disaster recovery efforts and continued risks to domestic business activities.
- Building a stable domestic power supply system in order to eliminate destabilizing factors, such as rolling blackouts.
- Promotion of infrastructure construction (such as emergency communication systems) in disaster-affected areas.
- Tax-exemption measures for recovery-related activities.
- Support of exports in relation to recovery efforts of domestic industries (negotiation to eliminate import duties of respective countries, support in exporting infrastructure equipment)
II. Survey Outline
- Scope of forecast: 12 major ICT equipment categories
Key telephone systems, intercoms, facsimile equipment (including multi-functioning devices), cellular phones, central office switching equipment, PBXs, digital transmission equipment, optical access equipment, fixed telecommunications equipment (terrestrial), fixed communications equipment (satellite), base station equipment, other network equipment (routers, LAN switches, etc.)
- Questions referring to the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami
- Impact of the disaster on fiscal year orders/shipment figures for both domestic market and exports.
- Timing of recovery from the disaster, specific positive/negative factors.
- Specific measures to tackle negative factors.
- Request to the government and other authorities.
- Survey timing
Friday, February 3, 2012 – Tuesday, February 14, 2012
- Survey target
17 CIAJ member companies voluntarily participated in this survey
For details, contact
tel: 81-3-5403-9356 fax: 81-3-5403-9360
For more general inquiries, contact
tel: 81-3-5403-9351 fax: 81-3-5403-9360