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- Japan’s Telecommunications Equipment Statistics Production/Imports/Exports
August, 2010
1. Market Trends in Communications Equipment in Japan
The Japanese economy in FY2010 was in recovery in synch with the global economy, but with the temporary decline in business activity following the Great East Japan Earthquake, and the drop in capital spending and consumer confidence, the domestic economy has suffered a tremendous set back.
Domestic production of terminal equipment in Japan shrank -14.9% over the previous year. Though the cellular phone market was stimulated by the surge in demand for smartphones, the growth in imports (mainly smartphones) and the shift to production abroad resulted in a large drop in domestic production. In network equipment, the significant decline in base station equipment and other wireless equipment resulted in a negative growth of -4.5% over the previous year. However, the decrease in switching systems, transmission systems and other wireline network equipment showed signs of hitting bottom. Total domestic production was 1.338 trillion yen, or -10.9% over the previous year and the fifth consecutive year of negative growth. The total value of exports was 426.8 billion yen (- 21.6% over FY2009) and the total value of imports was 1.274 trillion yen (+27.1% over FY2009).
2. Midterm Projection (2011 – 2015)
Altogether, the telecommunication equipment market for FY2011 through FY2015 is expected to remain flat, with the FY2015 figure projected at 3.309 trillion yen (+4.5% over FY2009), with the domestic market accounting for 2.788 trillion yen (0.0% over FY2009) and exports accounting for 521.1 billion yen (+37.1% over FY2009).
[FY2015 forecast]
(1) Consumer equipment: 1.827 trillion yen (+11.8% growth over FY2009)
(2) Business equipment: 421.1 billion yen (8.7% negative growth over FY2009)
(3) Infrastructure equipment: 645.9 billion yen (-3.1% growth over FY2009)
(4) Internet equipment: 375.4 billion yen (+2.3% growth over FY2009)
Positive growth forecasts to FY2015 for major telecommunication equipment categories are as follows:
Demand for multi-functioning personal facsimiles is growing in markets abroad, with the switch to MFP spreading in Europe, North America and emerging countries. In cellular phones, major changes in terminal devices (explosive popularity of smartphones and digital data terminals), networks (LTE services), and services (diversity of applications) will stimulate new demand for upgrade purchases, ownership of multiple handsets, and the business-use market. The total number of devices is expected to exceed 20 million in FY2014. Positive trends are expected in markets abroad as well. Upgrades by purchasers of key telephone systems in FY2000 and FY2004 will influence recovery in demand. Exports to emerging markets, such as BRICs are expected. The number of base stations are forecast to increase with the launch of commercial LTE services and 700 MHz and 900 MHz frequency communications. Investment in mobile data communications bandwidth and new services and the switch of layer 3 switches is expected to support growth of LAN switch demand.
Negative growth forecasts to FY2015 for major telecommunication equipment categories are as follows:
Growth in demand for multi-functioning business facsimiles will continue in emerging markets, but the per unit price will continue to move downwards under pressure from foreign brands, meaning the number of devices shipped will increase, but the total value of shipments will decrease. Infrastructure equipment, mainly central office switching systems, will shrink significantly after FY2011 with the termination of PSTN services. In fixed communications equipment, demand from the public sector for emergency/disaster communication systems will continue for a while. There will be new demand for a short period for new radio access systems, but again, this will wane in time. Optical access equipment will continue to drop as investment in PON systems taper off, but may pick up again in FY2014 and onwards with progress in NGNs.
Japan’s Telecommunications Equipment Statistics Production/Imports/Exports